Avinash Azad
The political landscape in Jammu and Kashmir has always been complex, but the current scenario reflects even more significant uncertainties as the NC-Congress alliance poses a considerable challenge to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the assembly elections.
Despite the BJP’s well-established base in Jammu, this alliance, led by regional heavyweights, unnerves the ruling party in New Delhi, compelling its top leadership to step up their rhetoric against the coalition.
The party, from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Home Minister Amit Shah and other senior leaders, is leaving no opportunity to discredit the alliance, linking it with contentious issues like Pakistan, separatism, and terrorism.
Rahul Gandhi, Congress leader and Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, seized this moment to sharpen his criticism of Prime Minister Modi. During an election rally in Surankote, Poonch district, Gandhi argued that the Prime Minister has lost his grip on power, citing that Modi is now heading a coalition government at the center. Gandhi’s remarks echo a growing sentiment among opposition ranks that the BJP, once seemingly invincible, is now on the defensive as it faces a strong regional alliance.
The NC-Congress alliance is gaining public sympathy, especially around the issue of restoring Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood, a unifying concern that transcends traditional party lines. Many voters, both in Jammu and Kashmir, feel disenfranchised after the abrogation of Article 370, and statehood has become the rallying cry for the opposition.
This issue, in particular, has brought together voters from diverse backgrounds who feel that the loss of statehood was a step too far, imposing New Delhi’s will without adequately considering the aspirations of the local populace.
Recognizing the unique demographics and political sensitivities of Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP’s tone has softened compared to its campaign during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. During that time, the BJP’s rhetoric painted Muslims as a significant obstacle to the country’s development, a divisive narrative that played well to its nationalistic base but could alienate critical sections of voters in a region where Muslims make up a majority.
Now, with only 240 seats in the Lok Sabha instead 400+ seats it had aimed for, the BJP has shifted to a more secular pitch, trying to bridge the gap between its Hindu nationalist roots and the regional concerns in J&K.
However, Dr. Farooq Abdullah, veteran leader and former Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, has not let the BJP forget its earlier tactics. Abdullah’s reminder of the BJP’s 2024 campaign, where Muslims were often scapegoated, strikes at the heart of the party’s credibility in the region. For the BJP to position itself as a secular force now feels incongruous to many voters who remember the divisive rhetoric that marked the party’s previous campaigns.
Despite these challenges, the BJP retains a strong base in Jammu division, particularly in districts like Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Udhampur, Doda and Kishtwar and is eyeing additional seats like Rajouri-Poonch and Gulabgarh. However, internal dissension, particularly over ticket allocation, could prove detrimental.
Leaders from Udhampur-East, Ramban, and other areas have revolted, frustrated at being sidelined in favor of other candidates, jumped the arena independently. With polling in the second and third phases fast approaching, the BJP’s leadership, including Home Minister Amit Shah, remains confident of securing at least 35 seats in Jammu division and forming a government with like-minded allies from Kashmir.
But political dynamics in this volatile region shift quickly, and it remains to be seen whether the large crowds that turn out for BJP rallies will translate into votes. As the countdown to the election results begins, both sides are preparing for a tightly contested race, one that could redefine the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir.
