Avinash Azad
As Jammu and Kashmir approaches its much-anticipated Assembly elections, the political atmosphere is anything but serene. The region, known for its complex political dynamics, now finds itself in the midst of internal strife within its leading parties.
While the contest is officially between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the National Conference-Congress alliance, the real battle appears to be brewing within the parties themselves. Rebel candidates, defying the party leadership, have emerged as a major force, threatening to upend the traditional political equation.
The impact of these rebels is already palpable, especially in key constituencies like Ramban, Pader Nagseni, Udhampur East, and the newly formed Shri Mata Vaishno Devi. These constituencies, part of the crucial Udhampur and Jammu Lok Sabha seats, have become focal points of concern for both the BJP and the NC-Congress alliance. Party insiders believe that the presence of strong independent candidates could lead to significant upsets, reshaping the political map of Jammu and Kashmir.
BJP’s Internal Rebellion
Over the past decade, the BJP has made significant strides in Jammu and Kashmir, particularly in the Jammu region, which has traditionally been a stronghold for the party. However, the upcoming elections have exposed cracks within its ranks. Prominent leaders have rebelled, contesting against the party’s official candidates, casting doubt on the BJP’s ability to maintain its foothold in the region.
In Pader Nagseni (Kishtwar), Rakesh Goswami, a senior BJP leader, has openly defied the party’s decision to field former minister Sunil Sharma as its candidate. Goswami, who is contesting as an independent candidate, has turned the election in the constituency into a personal duel. His decision to run independently is seen as both a challenge to the BJP’s central leadership and a protest against what he views as a flawed candidate selection process.
Ramban, another key constituency, is witnessing a similar scenario. Suraj Singh Parihar, a former District Vice President of the BJP, resigned after the party handed the ticket to Rakesh Thakur. Parihar has announced his candidacy as an independent, a move that could split the BJP’s voter base, providing an advantage to the opposition.
The situation is no different in the newly carved Shri Mata Vaishno Devi constituency, where the BJP’s selection of Baldev Sharma has sparked unrest within the party. Rohit Dubey, a senior party figure, has voiced his discontent and is likely to enter the race as an independent. His candidacy is expected to weaken the BJP’s hold in this crucial area, where the party was hoping to solidify its gains.
Udhampur East, another vital constituency, is facing its own rebellion. Long-time BJP loyalist Pawan Khajuria has turned against the official candidate, R.S. Pathania, by filing his nomination as an independent candidate. Khajuria’s move adds to the BJP’s growing internal challenges, particularly in Jammu and Samba districts, where several key leaders have deserted the party due to disagreements over candidate selection. The disenchantment stems from the party’s decision to give tickets to outsiders, alienating local leaders who feel sidelined.
Despite efforts by the BJP’s central leadership to maintain unity, the growing rebellion within the ranks is becoming increasingly difficult to manage. Party loyalists, who were instrumental in building the BJP’s presence in Jammu and Kashmir, now feel alienated and marginalized. This internal unrest is threatening the party’s prospects in several constituencies, creating uncertainty about its performance in the upcoming elections.
NC-Congress Alliance Faces Its Own Challenges
While the BJP grapples with internal dissent, the NC-Congress alliance is facing its own set of problems. Formed with the goal of countering the BJP’s growing influence in Jammu and Kashmir, the alliance is now being tested by internal divisions that could weaken its collective strength.
In Kishtwar, National Conference (NC) leader Pyare Lal Sharma has chosen to run as an independent candidate from Inderwal, after failing to secure the party’s mandate due to the alliance. Sharma, a widely respected secular leader in the region, is expected to draw significant support, posing a challenge to both the official NC-Congress candidate and the BJP.
Adding to the alliance’s woes, a leaked video has surfaced showing NC Member of Parliament Mian Altaf Ahmed expressing dissatisfaction with the Congress-NC partnership. In the video, Ahmed warns that the alliance could set the NC back by two decades, revealing deep-seated mistrust between the two parties. The video has caused considerable embarrassment for the NC, which has been trying to project a united front in the run-up to the elections.
The Congress, too, is dealing with internal dissent. The former president of the Jammu and Kashmir Congress unit, who is running from Banihal, has been openly critical of the NC’s leadership, particularly targeting NC Vice President Omar Abdullah. This infighting is proving particularly problematic in Banihal, where the alliance has opted for a friendly contest, with both the NC and Congress fielding their own candidates. The lack of unity between the two parties could give the BJP an unexpected opportunity to make gains in the region.
Panthers Party and Harsh Dev Singh’s Rising Influence
Amid the turmoil in both the BJP and the NC-Congress alliance, the Panthers Party, led by former MLA Harsh Dev Singh, is positioning itself as a significant player. Singh, who enjoys strong support in Udhampur district, is contesting from the Chenani constituency. His cousin, Balwant Singh Makotia, who left the Panthers Party to join the BJP, is running from the same seat, setting the stage for a high-stakes family rivalry.
In Udhampur West, another important constituency, the BJP’s candidate, former MLA Pawan Gupta, is facing a challenge from a former Block Development Council (BDC) Chairman who has aligned with the Panthers Party. With several District Development Council (DDC) members reportedly shifting their allegiance to Harsh Dev Singh, his position in Udhampur is strengthening, potentially complicating the BJP’s prospects.
High-Stakes Elections With the Legislative Assembly elections set to be held in three phases, on September 18, 25, and October 1, 2024, the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir is at a crossroads. The results, expected on October 8, will reveal whether the rebels within the BJP and NC-Congress alliance have succeeded in altering the political equation.
