Avinash Azad
Jammu and Kashmir’s changing climate is becoming increasingly visible in the region’s rainfall data, with Jammu recording a sharp decline in both annual rainfall and the number of rainy days over the past two decades.
Official figures show that Jammu received 1,879 mm of rainfall over 92 rainy days in 2005, compared to 1,470 mm over just 69 rainy days in 2024—a decline of nearly 22 percent in rainfall and 23 rainy days. Srinagar too witnessed a reduction in rainy days, which fell from 72 in 2005 to 66 in 2024, underlining a significant shift in the pattern of precipitation across Jammu and Kashmir.
A comparison of data from the 2004-05 baseline period and 2024-25, highlighted by IAS officer Dr Shahid Iqbal Choudhary, secretary Youth service and Sports department, from the Golden Jubilee edition of the Digest of Statistics 2025, shows a combination of changing rainfall patterns, warmer conditions, shifts in traditional crops and rapid expansion of horticulture.
The figures suggest that while agricultural production has increased in several sectors, climate-related vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly visible.
Dr Choudhary, while sharing the data, pointed towards the changing character of rainfall, with fewer rainy days potentially indicating more concentrated and intense rainfall events. He also noted warmer winter conditions and their possible implications for snow, soil moisture and agriculture.
The data shows that total food grain production increased from 15.027 million quintals in 2004-05 to 19.428 million quintals in 2024-25. Wheat production increased from 4.782 million quintals to 6.821 million quintals, while paddy yield improved from 19.71 quintals per hectare to 25.17 quintals per hectare. However, the gains have not been uniform across agriculture.
The area under maize declined from 322.70 thousand hectares to 284.90 thousand hectares. More significantly, saffron production fell sharply from 360 quintals to 130 quintals during the two-decade period.
The figures indicate that Jammu and Kashmir’s agricultural landscape is undergoing a gradual but significant transformation.
Horticulture has recorded one of the most dramatic expansions. Apple cultivation area increased from 107.93 thousand hectares to 173.07 thousand hectares, while production almost doubled from 1.093 million tonnes to 2.110 million tonnes.
The growth underlines the increasing importance of horticulture to Jammu and Kashmir’s rural economy. However, Dr Choudhary also drew attention to the sector’s vulnerability to climate-related changes and extreme weather events.
The data also provides a stark reminder of the impact a single extreme weather event can have on agricultural production. During 2014-15, the year of the devastating September 2014 floods, Jammu and Kashmir’s food grain production dropped to 10.481 million quintals—almost 30 percent below the 2004-05 baseline level. The comparison underlines the challenge before policymakers and farmers: production can grow steadily over years, but extreme weather events can cause major losses in a single season.
The two decades of official data, therefore, tell a larger story. Jammu and Kashmir is producing more food and horticultural crops, but the climate and agricultural systems on which this growth depends are also changing. The figures strengthen the case for greater focus on water management, protection and revival of springs, climate-suitable crop varieties, early warning systems, agricultural insurance, storage infrastructure and stronger risk management for farmers.
